For more than a century, economists have described housing as moving through predictable cycles. While no two cycles are identical, one characteristic has historically defined a correction: slowing sales eventually lead to lower prices. That's why today's market has economists scratching their heads.
Many economists believe the housing market has been in a correction since mortgage rates surged in 2022. Yet one of the defining characteristics of a traditional correction has been largely absent. Instead of significant declines in home prices, the biggest adjustment has occurred in market activity.
The numbers in Boulder County tell the same story. From 2022 through 2025, the county's median sold price remained remarkably steady, ranging from approximately $720,000 to $735,000, even as annual home sales remained about 20% below the pace of the 2021 market. If this is a housing correction, it certainly doesn't follow the traditional playbook.
So why has activity slowed while prices have remained relatively stable?
Mortgage rates are certainly part of the answer. Homeowners who purchased or refinanced during the era of historically low interest rates have little incentive to exchange a 3% mortgage for one that's more than twice as high. But economists believe that's only part of the story.
Today's homeowners generally have more equity, fixed-rate mortgages, and less pressure to sell than in previous market cycles. At the same time, a healthy job market has reduced relocation activity, while higher borrowing costs have made it more difficult for many first-time buyers to enter the market. Together, those forces have slowed transactions without creating the price declines that typically accompany a housing correction.
That doesn't mean every neighborhood or price range is experiencing the same conditions. Real estate has always been local. Today's market can't be judged by yesterday's playbook. Understanding what's driving today's market is the key to making informed real estate decisions