The only surprise as big as this pandemic? How it will end.
The onset in the U.S. one year ago was sudden and panicky, followed by the demoralizing news that it would be around for a while, and would have to wait for vaccines to stop it. It will not end the way it arrived.
At worst, COVID-19 may not end, remaining chronic but manageable. At best it will end slowly, with cases diminishing at an unknown rate, compounded by unknown resistance to vaccination, with persistent and variable personal fear gradually relaxing to a sense of safety in different activities.
Turn my amateur epidemiology assessment into economics and real estate. First, close-contact businesses can reopen very quickly: Chefs are still chefs, landlords want restaurants to reopen, pilots and planes are ready, and bars and movies will not be short of customers or employees.
Second, the next-biggest economic issue: will the passing of COVID create a flood of listings on the market? Will the huge Front Range gains in home prices diminish when inventory eventually comes? How much of the paper-thin housing inventory is due to COVID and how much would have happened anyway?
The 2020 divergence of the single family home market from condo/townhome market reflects strong COVID-related consumer trends. People now want and need more space, and renters have been impacted the most. But the overall scarcity of homes versus demand traces all the way back to 2013 and the end of the last housing downturn. IT employment continues to be the big driver in our market, undeterred by the pandemic. And to clarify, there is no shortage of homes, just the land to put them on.
Of all the worries at hand, two are non-existent: a pending housing bubble, and on the other side, inflation. The top public-policy concern should be rezoning to create land supply so we can increase inventory