It’s always a challenge to get good information when markets are volatile. It’s especially true in today’s real estate market, where headlines and industry analysts are painting contradictory pictures.
To try to get some clarity on the national real estate market, Keeping Current Matters (KCM) collected the most up-to-date forecasts from five of the most respected, research-intensive sources in the real estate industry. Three of the experts forecasted that homes will continue to appreciate in 2023, although at significantly slower rates than the past few years. Two of the sources calculated that home values will depreciate from 1.5 to 4 percent in 2023. The average of all five sources (shown in green in the chart) suggests that home values may see a slight uptick, but nationally, home appreciation should be flat in 2023.
So what does that really mean? The experts are clearly divided on what 2023 will bring, but published reports provide additional context for buyers and sellers. The latest report from Wells Fargo anticipates a period of depreciation in 2023 followed by 3.1 percent appreciation in 2024. Similarly, the Pulsenomics Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES), which polls over 100 industry experts, forecasts appreciation of 2.6 to 4 percent from 2024 to 2026.
So even if 2023 is a year for the local housing market and the economy to catch its breath, subsequent years should return to a more normal cycle of annual price appreciation.
