Interest rates have risen to levels a little above pre-Covid, with 30-year fixed mortgages crossing 4 percent from the Covid bottom of 2.5 percent—and the Fed has yet to do anything! Here are a few thoughts as we transition into an inflationary period:
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2021 was the first year since 1994 with core inflation above 3 percent. The US economy is the most flexible ever, and inflation is suppressed by trade, IT, and aging demographics, just as pre-Covid.
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Beware noise about the Fed. It is a favorite excuse for mistakes by others (markets, investors, and Congress), and misunderstood. “Money-printing” accusations date to an era 50 years ago.
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Stay on solid ground, with fingers crossed. Covid caused supply disruption. Hope that it resolves soon. There is no other way to fight inflation except to destroy demand, which the Fed will do if it has to, but no hurry.
One caution. Real estate is not a good hedge against inflation. It worked in the 1970s for one technical reason: artificially low mortgage rates. Ever since, inflation means high rates, our worst enemy.