Here at the beginning of fall, there is less drama in Colorado than meets the cursor. No one selling advertising based on click-visits wants a headline which says, “Normal,” but truth is truth.
There is drama in the world, heaven knows, but not in Metro housing or its economy. In the first half of 2019, Colorado added jobs on a pace of 100,000 for the year. Excellent, steady as she goes.
Normal in housing is seldom steady for long, but still normal. Going back as far as good records go, Metro home prices have been flat for long periods interspersed with relatively brief jumps. We jumped in the late 1970's, were flat for most of the 1980's, had two separate short jumps in the 1990's, flat again from 2002 to 2013, and jumpy since. We are due for lower rates of price gains. Not likely flat—too little land versus too many people moving here—but slower.
Look for this news pattern: a gleeful media report of Colorado home prices falling, ideal for click-catching. Whenever you see this story, and you will, ask yourself, “Wait a minute. Prices paid last year are falling? Or some new asking prices are reduced?” In a normalizing market, particularly one as big as this Front Range has become, some towns, neighborhoods, and styles cool from favor and heat, overtaken by others newly trendy. In any neighborhood with slowing price appreciation, some sellers will think that prices are rising at the old slope, then after a while concede some price.
Limited inventory for sale, little new construction because not much land—these are indications of continuing buy pressure, aided by mortgage rates dropping from above 5 percent to below 4 percent in just seven months.
The legitimate scare stories on the minds of many are still overseas. Trade and tariffs may fester and wash up on our shores, but not yet. Here it’s just... normal.