Some experts question whether the current pace of residential home sales is maintainable. Are too many people buying homes like in the pre-recession years of 2004 to 2006? Are we headed for another housing crisis? Housing statistics from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) indicate just the opposite: Today’s market appears to be healthy and sustainable.
The disconnect is that some statisticians are looking only at the last four years of home sales and comparing them to the three years that preceded the housing bubble. Chart 1 shows their 10-year view of NAR data.
However, by going further back, a more accurate picture emerges. Chart 2 provides a quarter-century view of NAR data, with the boom-and-bust years of 2004 to 2011 grayed out. Notice that with bubble years removed, the pace of sales is growing at a steady, orderly pace.